The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is already history. The President of Azerbaijan stated it several times. It means that the Azerbaijan Republic has no conflict with ethnic Armenians living in Karabakh. They are citizens, and the reintegration process will take place over time. But Armenia should relinquish territorial claims. According to the 10 November, 2020 statement between the president of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the prime minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, all Armenian armed forces have to be withdrawn from occupied territories of Azerbaijan. Although no mention of the status of Karabakh, Armenia and the Minsk Group of OCSE which supports Armenia, note the importance of the so-called “status”. Nevertheless, Armenia should forget Karabakh once and for all. Ethnic Armenians of the region should live there respecting the constitution and the laws of the Azerbaijan Republic. And we show the reasons for the Armenians forgot Karabakh once and for all:
1. Armenians have no way out other than reintegration
The Karabakh economic region of Azerbaijan is located in such a geographical position that there is no way out other than establishing economic relations with other regions of the country. Khankendi city, where ethnic Armenians live compact, has more better and effective communication with Baku and Ganja cities of Azerbaijan, than Yerevan. If you have to drive from Yerevan to Khankendi, it will take you at least 11 hours. This road passes through outlined mountains and spans. However, the railway line from Baku to Khankendi was built in the Soviet period. The highways and railway lines from Baku to Khankendi are passed from plain places and are much more speedy and secure. During winter Yerevan-Khankendi road is very hard to pass, sometimes impossible. In addition, all the water needs of the Armenian population living in Karabakh are met at the expense of water sources formed in the territory of the Kalbajar and Lachin regions. It is known that the Armenian community in Karabakh appealed to the Azerbaijani authorities through Russian peacekeepers to solve the problem of drinking water in the city of Khankendi last year. The government of Azerbaijan shows a restrained position towards our citizens of Armenian origin who live compactly in the territory of our country. After the liberation of Shusha, it was clear to everyone that Khankendi was the next target. Despite this, the state of Azerbaijan agreed to a cease-fire to avoid losses among the Armenian population, and time was given for the reintegration of the Armenians living in the city of Khankendi.
2. Armenia has no opportunity to wage a war again
During the 44-day war, which lasted until the signing of the November 10 declaration, the Armenian army received an unexpected blow. The army of the neighbouring country was shaken both logistically and morally and psychologically. A large number of weapons and equipment of the occupying army were destroyed or taken as a trophy. The number of war trophies was so large that it was possible to create a park of trophies in the city of Baku. Before the war, Armenians often repeated that if the war started, Armenian tanks would come to Baku. Armenians have proven themselves to be a people with the foresight of Nostrodamus. But they forgot to mention one point. They did not say that these tanks would come to Baku as war trophies. They imagined occupying Baku in their dreams. The declaration signed by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the city of Shusha tied the hands of Russia and France, who supported Armenia. These patrons of Armenia have no opportunities to back them against Azerbaijan. Because this statement clearly stated that an attack on the territory of Azerbaijan means an attack on the territory of Turkey. Although Russia once thought of military intervention in Azerbaijan, it has already forgotten those dreams. Because an attack on Azerbaijan means an attack on Turkey. It is very risky for Russia, which is already fighting on 5 fronts, to enter into a military conflict with Turkey. If we take into account that Turkey is also a NATO country, then Russia entering the war with NATO means signing a death warrant for itself. Therefore, Armenia is not able to rise again against us either by its strength or at the expense of its patron Russia.
3. The possibility of the Zangezur region coming under the control of Azerbaijan
If Armenia starts another war against Azerbaijan and tries to occupy Karabakh, then the war will move to Armenia’s territory. To eliminate elements that threaten its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Azerbaijan will retain the right to destroy military facilities on the territory of Armenia and create a security zone for its borders. According to UN charters. The air distance between the Gubadli district of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is only twenty kilometres. It is not a difficult task for the Azerbaijani army, which destroyed hundreds of kilometres of defence lines and took an advance during II Karabakh War, to take control of Mehri and Gafan regions, also the eastern shores of Sevan (Gokcha) Lake, which have no fortifications. According to military experts, only two days are enough for the Azerbaijani army to take control of those regions. İn the case of Armenian attacks on Azerbaijan, the Collective Security Treaty Organization will also lose its ability to intervene. The charter of this organization refers to defending the member countries from aggression. The organisation have no right to support the aggression of one member against the other country. The member countries not only has no obligation to support the aggression of another country, but it is also even contrary to international law. On the other hand, all CSTO member countries have good relations and beneficial cooperation with Azerbaijan. Do you imagine that Kazakhstan – the country in second place in the CSTO according to its military power – will make war with Azerbaijan because of Armenia? This is never possible. Because the peoples of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are related peoples of the same root, and there are very successful bilateral relations. The Armenian authorities are well aware of all this. They know very well that if a new war starts, they will lose the western Zangezur and the eastern Goyche region.
4. The factor of international law and power is on the side of Azerbaijan
No matter how much the world community and international organizations talk about the rule of law and human rights, it is no longer a secret to many that the power factor is still important in international relations. In the early years of our independence, we Azerbaijanis sincerely relied on international law. We hoped that thanks to international law, our territories would be freed from occupation and that the world community would pressurize Armenia and return our lands peacefully. Over time, we have witnessed that international law is a tool in the hands of powerful states. In 1975, the Helsinki Final Act was adopted within the framework of the Council on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE). This document prohibited the acquisition of territory by force. According to the document, the principle of non-use of force is directly related to the inadmissibility of changing borders by force. Armenia’s violation of this norm of international law for years, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Kosovo’s separation from Serbia and its recognition as a separate state by force have clearly shown that the provisions of international law remain only on paper. Each state interprets international law in its own way and describes it according to its interests. It is understood that each state must defend its own parts of the provisions stipulated by international law relying on its own strength. Azerbaijan also successfully implements this.
5. Armenia’s own statehood may be put under question
Armenian territorial claims Azerbaijan after the defeat in the II Karabakh War puts its own statehood under question. According to a number of political experts, Azerbaijan might actualize its claims to Western Zangezur and Irevan city (Armenians call it Yerevan), if Armenia doesn’t stop its territorial claims. The decisions made at the beginning of the XX century about giving Irevan (Yerevan) and the Western Zangezur region to Armenia can be officially read back. In case of those decisions are read back, restoration of the territorial integrity within the borders at the beginning of the XX century might be chosen as a strategic target by the Azerbaijan Republic. This does not promise good prospects for Armenia.